Polecamy czytelnikom ciekawy tekst, inspirujący do myślenia krytycznego i unikania pułapek w postaci tworzenia za wszelką cenę miar ilościowych.

Krytycznej lektury!

https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119209195.ch3

Abstrakt:

In the world of modern finance, a love of numbers has replaced a desire for critical thinking. As long as something has a number attached to it, it is taken as gospel truth. Research shows that people are often fooled by the use of pseudoscience. Finance is loaded with pseudoscience and seductive details. For instance, risk management is clearly pseudoscience of the highest order. Numbers like Value at Risk (VaR) are used to create comfort, but actually just generate the illusion of safety. The presence of fat tails, endogenous correlations and risks of using trailing input all combine to renderVaR impotent. Performance measurement is another example of the reign of pseudoscience in finance.